Montreal West Island Real Estate — market insights from Pearl Kezele & Jason Fitzpatrick

By Pearl Kezele & Jason Fitzpatrick (Team Kezele), Royal LePage Village

October's numbers are in, and they come from two directions at once. The official count and the Island's transaction-conditions index agree on the shape of the month — sales down sharply, listings up — but they don't quite agree on what that means for prices. That tension is the story. This is where we are in the cycle, and what this phase means for you.

The official picture, from the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB), based on the Centris database: 3,252 residential transactions in the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area in October 2026, down 18 per cent from October 2025 and about 13 per cent below the ten-year average for the month. At the same time, active listings reached 21,817 at month end, up almost 20 per cent year over year. Plexes led the inventory growth at 25 per cent, followed by single-family homes at 22 per cent and condominiums at 14 per cent.

The Tardif Index, which measures transaction conditions on the Island of Montreal from the same Centris data, reads the month differently: 21.5 out of 100, in the "light buyer zone," up from 16.7 in September. On the Island, 1,222 sales were completed in October, down 19.0 per cent from a year earlier.

So which is it — a sellers' market or a buyers' market? Both reports are honest. They're measuring different things in different territories. QPAREB covers the whole metropolitan area and looks at prices: the single-family median rose 2 per cent year over year, while condo and plex medians held stable. The Tardif Index covers the Island only and measures conditions: how many listings expire, how sales compare with new listings, and how volume is moving. Its single-family median on the Island fell 4.7 per cent, to $782,500.

The honest read is this: the market is easing, not collapsing. Prices for single-family homes are broadly holding across the region, and conditions generally still favour sellers. But buyers have more room to negotiate than they did a year ago, and that room is widest in condos.

The numbers that matter
From QPAREB, for the Montreal CMA in October 2026:

• 3,252 sales, down 18 per cent year over year, about 13 per cent below the ten-year average.
• 21,817 active listings, up almost 20 per cent year over year.
• Single-family median up 2 per cent year over year; condo and plex medians stable.
• Selling times: single-family homes 36 days, plexes 46 days, condominiums 56 days.
• Conditions generally still favour sellers — the exception is condominiums on the Island of Montreal, where central areas are in surplus.

• Index 21.5 out of 100, light buyer zone — buyers keep a negotiating advantage, less marked than in September's 16.7.
• The rise came from absorption alone. New listings fell 11.6 per cent in a month (3,257 to 2,879) while sales rose 9.0 per cent (1,121 to 1,222). The sales-to-new-listings ratio went from 34.4 per cent to 42.4 per cent. The other two components — expirations and year-over-year momentum — stayed at their floor.
• 910 listings expired, up 14.8 per cent from a year earlier. The expirations ratio is 42.7 per cent — more than four in ten listings that reached an outcome ended without a sale.
• Condominiums: 603 sales, down 21.2 per cent; median $499,000, up 1.8 per cent; expirations ratio 47.8 per cent — nearly one condo listing in two expiring.
• Single-family homes: 360 sales, down 14.3 per cent; median $782,500, down 4.7 per cent; median time to sell 24 days.

• Across the reporting municipalities, single-family activity provided a clear snapshot of local demand. Pierrefonds-Roxboro recorded 36 firm sales with a median price of $678,000 and a median selling time of 44.5 days. Dollard-des-Ormeaux followed with 23 sales at a median of $825,000 in 45 days. Pointe-Claire saw 20 sales with a median price of $671,500 taking 43.5 days. Beaconsfield logged 18 sales at a median price of $1,175,000, averaging 57.5 days on the market. In Kirkland, 12 sales closed at a median of $952,500 in 32.5 days, while L'Île-Bizard–Sainte-Geneviève recorded 10 sales with a median price of $775,500 and a median of 34.5 days to sell.

• You have a negotiating advantage right now, and the numbers say so twice over: the Island sits in a light buyer zone, and active listings across the region are up almost 20 per cent. More choice, less competition, and sellers who know it — 42.7 per cent of Island listings that reached an outcome expired unsold.
• That advantage is widest in condominiums, where central Island areas are in surplus and nearly half of listings expire. For single-family homes, the advantage is real but narrower: well-priced homes still sell in about 24 days on the Island, and the regional median is still up 2 per cent year over year. The deal is there for the buyer who is prepared — pre-approved, clear on the number, ready to move when the right home appears. Waiting for a collapse is waiting for something neither report shows.

• Conditions generally still favour sellers, especially for single-family homes — but "generally" is doing a lot of work. With listings up 20 per cent and sales down 18 per cent, buyers have options, and they are using them. The 42.7 per cent expirations ratio is the number that should focus every seller's mind: more than four in ten Island listings ended without a sale.
• The homes that sold did so because they were priced for this market, not for last year's. Single-family homes across the region sold in an average of 36 days; on the Island, the median was 24 days. Overpriced homes sit, and sitting homes expire. Condos face the hardest test: surplus in central Island areas, and nearly one listing in two expiring.
• If you're thinking of selling, the honest read is that this is still a market that rewards the well-priced home — and punishes the hopeful price. The gap between what you ask and what the market will pay is where listings go to expire.

October 2026: Sales Down — Listings Up — and Two Reports That Do Not Quite Agree